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For a club the size of Reading the fact they have been onwards and upwards for an entire decade is remarkable. But if the bubble is not to burst they will need to win some points, and fast.

Each of the bottom eight teams have 13 games remaining.

Assume Derby, currently 13 points behind Reading are on mission impossible. That leaves two clubs from the bottom seven in big trouble.

Having taken 21 points from the first 25 games, it is unlikely Birmingham will suddenly average more than one point per game between now and the end of the season.

Tim Dellor

That means 38 points should be enough for Reading to avoid relegation.

So the $64,000 question is: from which games will Reading collect the required 16 points?

Unable to keep a clean sheet, and unable to score, the current form would suggest the debate is academic, but football does not work like that.

An own goal at a crucial time, a puff of wind, a defensive slip or a dubious refereeing decision and suddenly Reading's season will be back on track.

Between now and Sunday 11 May Reading have trips to Arsenal and Liverpool. It would be sensible to anticipate zero points from those two fixtures.

That leaves 11 fixtures.

Bearing in mind Reading have not won any games on their travels this season the sensible prediction would be a fruitless trip to Goodison Park this Saturday.

That leaves 10 games.

Regardless of the recent defensive mishaps, and the inability to score, there are aÌý couple of fixtures Reading must win if they are to stay up. Birmingham and Fulham at home are both must win.

That is six points. Now they need to find 10 points from 8 games.

The most obvious points available on the road come from the trip to Middlesbrough on Saturday 1 March, and the trip to Derby on the last day of the season.

That is 12 points won. Four to go and only six games to play with.

Bolton score against Reading

Both Wigan and Newcastle away are games in which Reading are capable of securing three points. Spurs, Blackburn, Man City and Villa at home are games in which anything could happen.

If fans consider the form since the start of 2008 it is all over. Reading are down. Relegated. Hope you enjoyed your two years with the big boys. Back to the Championship.

It would be far more sensible to consider the form over the course of the last two seasons. Suddenly it is game on and everything to play for. Of the 16 points required the most difficult to win will be the first three.

Once Reading get off the mark, regain some confidence and see a move in the right direction it will make life look very different. Until then the task will seem daunting.

We can only make guesstimates at such times. The original premise might be wrong.

Steve Coppell: plenty to think about

Perhaps Reading will need 40 points to be safe. More likely, they may only need 35 points.

The more observant amongst you may have spotted I have managed to get through this whole 'opinion' piece without giving a single opinion. Splinters are hurting my behind as I perch on this uncomfortable fence.

What do I think will happen? If I were a betting man, I would go for Reading needing a win on the last day of the season to guarantee safety, and getting the win thanks to a Leroy Lita goal. Football has a strange habit of throwing up such drama.

Right now every Reading fan would bite your hand off for this scenario to unfold.ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý